Great City-County Divide
Demographics Help Explain Rockingham’s Conservative Voter Base
Posted: November 9, 2012
HARRISONBURG — Harrisonburg’s trend toward Democratic candidates in recent election cycles puts the city increasingly at odds politically with surrounding Rockingham County. County voters supported Republican Mitt Romney over President Barack Obama by a 14,000-vote margin, giving the former Massachusetts governor 69 percent of the vote compared to 29 percent for the ultimately successful Democratic incumbent.
Harrisonburg voters, meanwhile, split 55 percent in favor of the president in Tuesday’s election, in which Obama handily won the Electoral College but had a slimmer victory in the popular vote.
The city and county votes this year mirrored 2008’s results, though both were slightly more in favor of Obama that year in his race against Sen. John McCain.
But Harrisonburg’s vote four years ago marked a major shift from 2004, when President George W. Bush took 56 percent of the vote over Democratic Sen. John Kerry.
So, how is it that Rockingham County has stayed solidly Republican while Harrisonburg has turned increasingly Democratic over the past several years?
The answer, political analysts say, comes down to one thing: demographics.
Race, Age, Religion
Harrisonburg has become more diverse, from both a racial and religious standpoint. In addition, cities in general tend to have younger populations than more rural areas, and Harrisonburg is no exception. Those conditions portend more progressive voters.
Rockingham County, meanwhile, remains predominantly white, evangelical and older — what many consider the GOP base.
“I think it follows the rest of the nation in [the] sense [that] urban areas with lots of racial and religious diversity create conditions in which people are more likely to be Democrats,” said Jim Josefson, a political science professor at Bridgewater College.
“Areas which are religiously and racially homogenous, especially where you have lots of working-class white evangelical Protestants — those people are Republicans,” Josefson added.
Additionally, communities that are highly partisan one way or another tend to foster what political scientists call a “spiral of silence,” Josefson said.
A conservative living in Washington, D.C., for example — where Obama took more than 90 percent of the vote — is less likely to voice his opinion.
That silence, in turn, makes it less likely for people to have views that diverge from the hive.
Demographics Explains It
Bob Roberts, a political science professor at James Madison University, said the racial divide between the city and county explains at least part of Republicans’ advantage in the county.
According to estimates from the Weldon Cooper Center at the University of Virginia, Rockingham County is 95 percent white, compared to a white population of 85 percent in the city.
Exit polls show Romney took 59 percent of the white vote nationally.
Also, the county’s high concentration of evangelical churchgoers aided Romney, Roberts said.
“You take demographics and that explains the difference between city and county,” he said, adding that JMU’s presence in the city also helps Democrats.
Contact Jeremy Hunt at 574-6273 or jhunt@dnronline.com
Harrisonburg voters, meanwhile, split 55 percent in favor of the president in Tuesday’s election, in which Obama handily won the Electoral College but had a slimmer victory in the popular vote.
The city and county votes this year mirrored 2008’s results, though both were slightly more in favor of Obama that year in his race against Sen. John McCain.
But Harrisonburg’s vote four years ago marked a major shift from 2004, when President George W. Bush took 56 percent of the vote over Democratic Sen. John Kerry.
So, how is it that Rockingham County has stayed solidly Republican while Harrisonburg has turned increasingly Democratic over the past several years?
The answer, political analysts say, comes down to one thing: demographics.
Race, Age, Religion
Harrisonburg has become more diverse, from both a racial and religious standpoint. In addition, cities in general tend to have younger populations than more rural areas, and Harrisonburg is no exception. Those conditions portend more progressive voters.
Rockingham County, meanwhile, remains predominantly white, evangelical and older — what many consider the GOP base.
“I think it follows the rest of the nation in [the] sense [that] urban areas with lots of racial and religious diversity create conditions in which people are more likely to be Democrats,” said Jim Josefson, a political science professor at Bridgewater College.
“Areas which are religiously and racially homogenous, especially where you have lots of working-class white evangelical Protestants — those people are Republicans,” Josefson added.
Additionally, communities that are highly partisan one way or another tend to foster what political scientists call a “spiral of silence,” Josefson said.
A conservative living in Washington, D.C., for example — where Obama took more than 90 percent of the vote — is less likely to voice his opinion.
That silence, in turn, makes it less likely for people to have views that diverge from the hive.
Demographics Explains It
Bob Roberts, a political science professor at James Madison University, said the racial divide between the city and county explains at least part of Republicans’ advantage in the county.
According to estimates from the Weldon Cooper Center at the University of Virginia, Rockingham County is 95 percent white, compared to a white population of 85 percent in the city.
Exit polls show Romney took 59 percent of the white vote nationally.
Also, the county’s high concentration of evangelical churchgoers aided Romney, Roberts said.
“You take demographics and that explains the difference between city and county,” he said, adding that JMU’s presence in the city also helps Democrats.
Contact Jeremy Hunt at 574-6273 or jhunt@dnronline.com