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Editorial

How Purple Is Virginia? Posted 2009-11-05
McDonnell Begins The Reversal



Hand it to Bob McDonnell. He gave Creigh Deeds a pretty good shellacking, which likely will cause a few observers, not least this page, to question whether Virginia had become a purple state veering toward the blue.

The victories of Gov. Tim Kaine and Sen. Mark Warner, and then President Obama’s taking the state Democratic for the first time in a presidential election since 1964, inspired such speculation. But it appears some of it may have been premature. Again, thanks to Bob McDonnell.

Mr. McDonnell’s 59-41 margin was a victory of rather a different order than his 360-vote edge over Mr. Deeds for attorney general. Deeds never got close, and his running mates suffered similar defeats in the first Republican sweep of the top statewide offices since 1997.  And, the Republicans added to their majority in the House of Delegates during a year when maintaining their majority had been in doubt early in the races.

The question, of course, is what Mr. McDonnell’s victory means.

“A warning to Democrats: It’s not 2008 anymore,” the Washington Post fretted in a top headline on its Web site early Wednesday morning. The subhead: “GOP wins reveal cracks in Obama coalition.”

Wrote political analyst Dan Balz in the story under those headlines, “Neither gubernatorial election amounted to a referendum on the president, but the changing shape of the electorates in both states and the shifts among key constituencies revealed cracks in the Obama 2008 coalition and demonstrated that, at this point, Republicans have the more energized constituency heading into next year’s midterm elections.

“The most significant change came among independent voters, who solidly backed Democrats in 2006 and 2008 but moved decisively to the Republicans on Tuesday, according to exit polls. In Virginia, independents strongly supported Republican Robert F. McDonnell in his victory over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds, while in New Jersey, they supported Republican Chris Christie in his win over Democratic Gov. Jon S. Corzine.”

John Dickerson, writing at Slate magazine, concurred: “Winning independents is important because Democrats are trying to paint Republicans as captive to the most extreme wing of the party. Independents, who tend to dislike extremism of any sort, wouldn't be voting for Republicans if that were the case.”

The election of Mr. McDonnell and Mr. Christie’s defeat of incumbent Democrat Corzine in New Jersey were not referenda on Mr. Obama. But they are a repudiation of the unwise and extreme measures being proposed and voted on in Washington. The victories are a clear expression of dissatisfaction with the White House and the Democratic Congress. Virginians are telling Washington that they are going too far too fast on many important issues.

Mr. McDonnell’s victory may well portend a growing if not groundswell of disatisfaction with Mr. Obama’s party of leftist technocrats and vote fraudsters and the statist policies they want to push upon the American people. People are worried about jobs and the economy, areas where Democrats typically foul things up. Thanks to their mad attempt to nationalize the country’s economy and health-care system, Democrats may well feel the sting of a backlash in 2010.

Mr. McDonnell’s victory is a good sign that Virginians haven’t abandoned common sense conservatism, and the Democrats who run their party may want to take note. Do not assume that voters who reject one or two Republicans will reject them all or that said rejection means a realignment is under way or has occurred.

In other words, one victory for a Democratic presidential candidate in a traditionally Republican state does not mean a seismic party shift has occurred. Which means Virginia may not be as purple, meaning it was veering toward the left, as everyone thought.

Congratulations, Mr. McDonnell. And good luck in your next four years.

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